Trump signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding with Iran at the G7 Versailles summit on June 17, formally ending the Twelve-Day War. Iran's foreign ministry signed remotely. The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 17 million barrels per day flow—reopened immediately. Brent crude fell 4.2% and WTI dropped 4.6% on the news. The framework sets a 60-day window for full nuclear negotiations. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif announced the deal on June 14; Trump formalized it three days later.
1
Deal Architecture
The 14 points cover immediate ceasefire, Hormuz commercial passage restored, Iran's enriched uranium capped at 60% purity with 440kg stockpile acknowledged, a 60-day denuclearization negotiation window, and release of all U.S. nationals. The framework requires Iran to submit a full uranium inventory within 30 days—a verification step absent from Obama's JCPOA, which only required enrichment level reporting.
2
Oil and Insurance Market Impact
During the blockade, global energy insurance premiums rose 280 basis points. Lloyd's estimates 6-8 weeks to normalize rates. Gulf-linked shipping ETFs dropped 8-12% on June 17. Falling WTI prices translate to near-term relief at U.S. gas pumps—a direct consumer benefit that should appear in CPI readings within 4-6 weeks, easing Fed rate hike pressure.
3
60-Day Risk Window
Supreme Leader Khamenei stated June 17 that enriched uranium 'will not leave Iran'—the deal's single biggest unresolved gap. Israel publicly refused to endorse the framework; Netanyahu's office said Tel Aviv was not consulted. The 60-day window expires around August 17. If negotiations collapse, the administration retains full military optionality—the MOU contains no penalty clause for Iran.
The MOU gives Trump maximum leverage: Hormuz open, oil normalized, 60-day clock running. Iran gets ceasefire; Trump gets a compliance proof requirement. If Tehran stalls, military optionality stays intact.
Sources
- ✓ Fox News — Trump personally signs Iran deal at Versailles — June 17, 2026
- ✓ Al Jazeera — What the Trump-Iran 14-point plan says about Lebanon, Hormuz, and uranium — June 18, 2026
- ✓ PBS NewsHour — Deal reached to end Iran war, Trump orders stop to naval blockade — June 17, 2026
- ✓ CNBC — Trump's Iran deal delivers key gains for Tehran, testing Washington's red lines — June 18, 2026
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