Trump told reporters July 25 he is 'very close' to deciding whether to launch a massive attack on Iran. Defense Secretary Hegseth disclosed the war has cost $37.5B so far. July 25 was the first night CENTCOM issued no strike announcement since the 13th strike package on July 24; oil held near $98/bbl. Netanyahu convened his war cabinet the same day ahead of an imminent Washington visit — the first direct Israel-US summit since hostilities began in late February.
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War Cost and Strategic Posture
Hegseth's $37.5B figure covers 13 strike packages since February 28. Congress has not yet voted on supplemental appropriations. IRGC General Asadi on July 23: 'Our war with the enemy is a war of attrition — it will not end.' The 13th strike package (July 24) targeted Iranian military command centers, drone storage depots, and Hormuz coastal surveillance sites.
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Hormuz Energy Risk
Hormuz handles ~21M bpd — 21% of global seaborne oil. Goldman Sachs estimates full closure adds $12–15/bbl. Houthi Red Sea interdiction is simultaneously active; the Red Sea-Suez corridor carries 15% of global trade. Both chokepoints under concurrent pressure; the Goldman risk premium is not yet priced at $98/bbl.
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Netanyahu DC Visit Calculus
Netanyahu's July 25 war cabinet deliberations were not publicly disclosed. Israeli strikes July 26 killed Hamas North Gaza police chief Brig. Gen. Al-Maqadma at Nuseirat camp. The White House has not announced an official meeting date. The joint Iran framework and post-war Gaza governance are the expected agenda centerpieces.
Whether 'massive attack' is a negotiating lever or a final ultimatum will likely clarify before next week's Asia market open.
Sources
- ✓ AP — Trump says he is close to deciding whether to launch massive attack on Iran — July 25, 2026
- ✓ Defense Department / Hegseth — Iran war cost disclosed at $37.5B — July 25, 2026
- ✓ Wikipedia — 2026 Iran war — July 2026
- ✓ Times of Israel — Netanyahu to convene security cabinet July 25 — July 25, 2026
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