Trump announced Wednesday a Hormuz deal could close "today or tomorrow." WTI crude fell 4%+; all three US equity indices closed at all-time highs. Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed talks with Oman have entered their "final stage." The draft calls for split-lane transit — Iranian-controlled entry route, Omani-controlled exit — with per-vessel security and environmental fees. Iran says the deal activates only once the US ends its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
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From ultimatum to deal
Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum in early April; the US Navy subsequently blockaded Iranian ports. The strait carries 19 million bpd — 21% of global supply. Oman has mediated throughout; Tehran's Foreign Ministry confirmed the draft terms are near finalized. Trump: "If they back out again, they're going to get hit really hard."
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Market reaction: winners and losers
Energy sector fell 1.9%; tanker stock Frontline shed 7.3% as freight rates expected to ease. Airlines gained 2-4% on fuel cost relief. Tech and consumer discretionary up 2-3% on lower input costs. S&P 500 year-to-date gain extended to 19.3%. Dow posted its fifth record close of 2026.
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The real test
The deal requires the US to lift its naval blockade before Hormuz reopens — a concession Trump has signaled he will make if terms are met. Iranian hardliners retain attack capability and struck two tankers in the same period (see article 11). A closed deal this week resets global energy pricing without further military action.
If the deal closes this week, Trump reshapes global energy pricing without a single additional airstrike.
Sources
- ✓ Washington Post — Trump says deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come as early as Wednesday — Aug 5 2026
- ✓ CNBC — Iran, Oman say Strait of Hormuz talks in final stages — Aug 5 2026
- ✓ Fox News — Trump says Strait of Hormuz deal could come Wednesday — Aug 5 2026
- ✓ CBS News — Live Updates: Trump says Hormuz deal could happen today or tomorrow — Aug 5 2026
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