September 13, 2026 · Sunday · PM

Iran Deal Blocked, Bonds Defy Bessent, AI Scams, Midterm Threat

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a $6 billion repurchase of 10- to 20-year Treasuries to tamp down long yields. Yields jumped instead. The 10-year note touched 4.85%, its highest since November 2023. Bessent had boasted at the G20 that US Treasuries outperformed global peers since Trump's return — bond traders are now testing that claim directly.
1

Why It Backfired

The $6 billion repurchase is negligible against $15 trillion in outstanding Treasuries. The signal itself spooked traders: active buybacks read as a distress signal, not stabilization, widening term premiums. The FY2026 fiscal deficit is projected at $2.4 trillion, with weekly issuance volumes dwarfing any buyback program.
2

Global Context

The selloff is global: Japanese JGBs and German Bunds also rose. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and Bessent both signal a growth-first posture over rate cuts. Asian central banks hold their lowest Treasury allocations since 2020, removing a key marginal buyer at precisely the wrong moment.
3

Policy Implication

Sustained yields above 4.85% push 2027 US net interest expense past $1.2 trillion — more than the defense budget. Bessent's deficit-reduction targets require real revenue growth to move markets; jawboning alone will not. Next inflection: September FOMC statement and dot-plot revision.
Bessent dared traders to bet against him. They took the trade.
Sources
  • NBC News — Bessent's move to tamp down rising rates backfires as bond yields jump — Sep 2026
  • CNBC — Bessent touts bond market as 10-year Treasury yield spikes — Sep 1 2026
  • Memeorandum — Bessent dared the markets to bet against him, bond traders winning — Sep 13 2026
#Bessent#Treasuries#BondMarket#FiscalDeficit
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